At this writing, with most of the results in, it appears that there will be a runoff between Jair Bolsonaro and left wing PT (Workers Party) candidate Fernando Haddad.
Of course, this means that we were wrong. We had Bolsonaro taking the first round with well over the needed 51%. We did hedge our bets a little, giving two options in case he didn’t make the first round. We said that if Ciro Gomes had come in second, he would take a lot of votes from Bolsonaro in the second round, plus the entire PT would vote for him, putting him over the top.
But that is not what happened. The current scenario is the best possible for Bolsonaro, as he will pick up a good chunk of the voters from Ciro and the lesser candidates who, while they might have a distaste for Bolsonaro, are terrified of a return of the PT.
Based on that, we are predicting, at this point, a Bolsonaro win in the second round. Of course…we’ve been wrong before.
But, if we’re wrong, we’re in good company.
So, buckle your seat belts, folks! The next 21 days are going to be one wild ride.
Follow our continuing coverage of the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections here.