Here is my personal, non-scientific, non-binding analysis of the Brazilian elections so far. (begin thread)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

My first guess: @jairbolsonaro will win in the first round on October second, with no need for a second round.

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

I know that very few of the polls show this happening, but I am not sure the polls are talking to the right people. (2)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

I am basing my opinion more off of events like this… https://t.co/HHu5KRrv52 (3)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

…and this… (4) https://t.co/HcoeB39KGU

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

…as well as conversations I have had. Like at the pizza joint I ate at on Sunday night, where the entire staff, from owners to waiters, were supporters of Bolsonaro… (5)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

…or the conversation I had will visiting a friend in the hospital. All the other visitors were people of color from poor areas of the city…and all of them told me they will be voting for Bolsonaro. (6)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

One of the men present told me "If Lula were running, I'd vote for him, because nobody's perfect. But he's out, so now I'm voting for Bolsonaro." (7)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

Or then there's the college prep course I attended, where at least two of the five univsersity professors (!) were clearly supporters of Bolsonaro. (8)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

I don't think people have realized the effect that the attempted assassination has had on the electorate. One clear example is my Brazilian wife, who was on the fence up until the day of the stabbing, and at that moment became a very vocal supporter of Bolsonaro. (9)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

So to summarize, the reason I expect a first-round win for Bolsonaro is because I am sensing a groundswell. I could be wrong, my senses could be off…but I remember 2016 in the US, and the feeling here is quite similar. (10)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

Now…current polls are showing a surge in support for @Haddad_Fernando, the handpicked successor to @LulaOficial. The problem is, this surge is not taking any support away from Bolsonaro. Rather it is eating away at the other candidates. (11)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

Latest Datafolha poll numbers. Bolsonaro continues to lead, Haddad moves into second ahead of Ciro. Second round scenario shows tie between Bolsonaro and Haddad #Eleições2018 pic.twitter.com/f7h56Nn2qo

— Bruce Douglas (@bruceecurb) September 20, 2018

Bolsonaro's support continues to grow in the polls…although not at as fast a rate as Haddad's. In fact, the main candidate negatively affected by the surge of Haddad is @cirogomes. (12)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

Now, what if I am wrong, Bolsonaro does not get the needed 51%, and the election goes into a second round between him and whoever comes in second? (13)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

At this point, from where I sit, the only two candidates who have a real shot at going into a runoff with Bolsonaro are @cirogomes and @Haddad_Fernando. And if I had to guess, based on the surge in the polls, I would put my money on Haddad. (14)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

HOWEVER, of the two, I think Ciro Gomes has the best chance of beating Bolsonaro in a runoff. Many Ciro supporters REALLY don't like the PT (Haddad's and Lula's Workers Party). In a runoff between Haddad and Bolsonaro, they will go with the latter, however reluctantly. (15)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

So…from what I can tell, the guy with the best chance of getting to a second round with Bolsonaro has the least chance of beating him in that second round. (16)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

So if there is a second round, it will most liketly be Bolsonaro vs Haddad, and I see Bolsonaro winning that one handily. (17)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018

So those are my predictions, a couple weeks out. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Stay tuned! (end thread)

— BestofBrazilBlog (@BlogBestof) September 20, 2018